Application of variable fuzzy assessment method to drought resilience evaluation: a case study of Hebei Province
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DOI:10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2014.05.030
Key Words: drought disaster  drought resilience  assessment  the analytic hierarchy process  variable fuzzy method
Author NameAffiliation
GU Hong-bo, LIU Xin-yi, LIU Zhi-yu (湖南科技大学管理学院 湖南 湘潭 411201) 
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Abstract:
      Taking into consideration the natural and social economic conditions, eight indexes including precipitation, multiple cropping index, yield per unit area, per capita yield, effective irrigation rate, labor force proportion, per capita income of farmers, and ratio of agriculture output to input, were used to evaluate agricultural drought resilience. By using analytic hierarchy process, the weight of each index was determined, and the variable fuzzy assessment model was used for 11 cities of Hebei Province. The results indicated that there were significant differences among cities, with Shijiazhuang showing the highest value of 4.2329, Tangshan the second 4.0046, and Zhangjiakou the lowest 1.8079. We also found that effect of influencing factors on drought resilience varied. Precipitation was the most influencing factor, and effective irrigation rate as well as per capita income of farmers and ratio of agriculture output to input also showed considerable effects.