| In order to effectively evaluate the risk condition of water resources shortage, using the improved information diffusion theory to determine the risk evaluatiog degrees, selected 23 evaluatiog indexes, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, carried out the evaluation research of water resource shortage risk for the Shanxi Province. The results showed that: The risk vectors of Taiyuan, Yangquan, Xinzhou, Jinzhong and whole Shanxi Province were 0.4461、0.5189、0.4258、0.4019 and 0.3685 respectively, the risk grade was third level which belonged medium risk level. The risk vectors of Changzhi and Jincheng were 0.3896 and 0.3914 which belonged lower risk level. The risk vectors of Datong, Shuozhou, Luliang, Linfen and Yuncheng were 0.4818、0.4865、0.4576、0.4082 and 0.4597 respectively, the risk grade was fourth level which belonged higher risk level. The model evaluation results were basically consistent with the local real situation of the water resources development and utilization, it can be provided the guidance for the exploitation and utilization of regional water resources. |