| Modeling analysis on sensitive factors of water consumption for mature jujube tree under daily scale in arid area |
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| DOI：10.16302/j.cnki.1000-7601.2015.01.016 |
| Key Words: jujube tree water consumption temperature soil moisture solar radiation PLSR grey relational analysis arid area |
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| Abstract: |
| Taking the mature jujube tree in Akesu, Xinjiang as the research object, the average daily temperature(x1), relative humidity(x2), wind speed(x3), solar radiation(x4), atmospheric pressure(x5), soil moisture content in 0～100 cm(x6) and soil temperature in 0～20 cm(x7) as the model influnce factors, has established the water consumption forecast model by using the PLSR method. On the basis of default factor method, has analyzed the sensitivity of water comsuption to each factor, furthermore using the gray relational analysis method to test and verify. The results showed that: The PLSR model had rather high accuracy(correlation coefficient r=0.9789), not only quantitative forecast the water consumption of jujube tree (average relative error was 6.4%), but also explain the impact of each factor on water consumption through mechanism. The three factors as solar radiation, soil moisture and temperature were the most sensitive factors on water consumption of jujube (sensitivity index were 3.24, 2.18 and 2.09, respectively). Based on the default factor method, has sequenced the sensitive factors as (x4＞x1＞x6＞x3＞x7＞x2＞x5) almost agreement with the calculated results by the grey relational analysis as(x4＞x1＞x6＞x3＞x7＞x5＞x2), especially the main influence factors were completely consistent. |
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