Potential productivity and yield estimation of spring wheat based on a Net Primary Production model——Taking Baiyin district in Gansu province as an example
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DOI:10.16302/j.cnki.1000-7601.2015.01.033
Key Words: Net Primary Productivity (NPP)  spring wheat potential productivity  yield estimate  Baiyin district in Gansu province
Author NameAffiliation
ZHAO Jun, WANG Yu-chun, DANG Guo-feng, WU Jiang-min, FU Jie-wen, SHI Yin-fang (西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院 甘肃 兰州 730070) 
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Abstract:
      Based on the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA), a net primary productivity (NPP) model for spring wheat was established with 250 m ×250 m MODIS remote images and weather station-based meteorological data in the Baiyin District at wheat growing season from April to July 2010. Through calculation on the transform relationship between NPP and dry matter, the potential productivity of spring wheat was estimated. The results showed that the NPP and potential productivity of spring wheat in south area were both greater than those in the north area of Baiyin District. The minimal value of NPP was 42 gC·m-2·a-1 and the maximal value was 402 gC·m-2·a-1. In the meantime, it was found that the production potential of spring wheat showed clear correlations with seasons. According to the actual wheat yield of per unit area and the potential productivity of spring wheat, the estimation model by regression analysis was established. Further tests were carried out to evaluate the accuracy and utilization of the model with a root mean square error (RMSE) at 76.33 g·m-2 and a relative root mean square error (RMSEr) at 23.51%.