Econometric analysis on influencing factors of intensive use of agricultural land in Henan Province——An empirical research based on GA-BP and Generalized Impulse Response Function
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DOI:10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2015.03.36
Key Words: agricultural land  intensive use  influencing factors  econometric analysis  Henan Province
Author NameAffiliation
DING Yan-xi 河南宏田土地整治技术咨询有限公司 河南 郑州 450002 
SONG Wen-bo 河南农业大学资源与环境学院 河南 郑州 450002 
MENG Qing-xiang 河南农业大学资源与环境学院 河南 郑州 450002河南省高校农业资源与环境工程技术研究中心 河南 郑州 450002 
GUO Zi-long 河南农业大学资源与环境学院 河南 郑州 450002 
KANG Kai 河南农业大学资源与环境学院 河南 郑州 450002 
WANG Yang 河南农业大学资源与环境学院 河南 郑州 450002 
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Abstract:
      Based on the related time series data from 1978 to 2012 in Henan Province, constructed the genetic algorithm-BP neural network model and measured the intensive use of agricultural land. On this basis, using the cointegration theory, error correction model, general impulse response function and variance decomposition, researched the dynamic response relationship between intensive use of agricultural land and its influencing factors. The results showed that: There were a long-term equilibrium relationship between the comprehensive index of intensive use of agricultural land and per capita income of farmers, total value of farm output, per capital arable land and policy and rules. The promoting role to the intensive use of agricultural land by the per capita income of farmers, total value of farm output, policy and rules were more significant in long term. The per capita income of farmers and policy and rules was the major source for forecasting variance of intensive use of agricultural land. The total contribution was kept above 52%. But the contribution of total value of farm output and per capital arable land to forecasting variance of intensive use of agricultural land was below 14%. On the whole, the per capita income of farmers and policy and rules were the major factor to affec the intensive use of agricultural land. Finally, according to the research conclusion, put forward the related policy and suggestions.