| Located in arid and semi-arid mountainous area in the northwest loess plateau, Tianshui has a high incidence with drought and the development of fruit tree industry was affected. To effectively defend against the drought and reduce fruit losses to the minimal level, this study focused on the evaluation research on the influence of drought on peach production in Tianshui and this research had obvious instructive significance. Statistical method was carried out to outlines the main factors of drought to study the influence of drought on peach production in Tianshui. The result showed that drought heavily affected the normal growth of peaches from the germination to opening in early spring, and at flowering and with high temperature in middle October in previoust year. The frequency of mild drought occurred most when peach began germinating to open and flowering, reaching 23% and 31%. When peach began flowering heavily, drought affected the peach production, contributing up to 40% of the loss. Our results could provide 83% and 80% accuracies in estimating mild and severe drought, respectively. The accuracy could reach over 94% for drought or non-drought occurrences. The accuracies on moderate and the worst drought were up to 100%. In conclusion, this drought evaluation approach was ideal and had definite reference value in agricultural practices on drought prevention and reduction. |