| We selected the Dongzhi Loess Tableland as target area. Regional water demand was quantified according to socio-economic survey and forecasting. The three main factors including additional water sources, water savings and deduction of groundwater abstraction, which influenced the local water supply, were adopted to compose eight scenarios to predict future water allocation in the area. Then, the WEAP model (Water Evaluation and Planning System) was used to simulate the relationship between water supply and demand in the selected three planning years, best strategies were defined for each planning year based on a comprehensive analysis of the model outputs. Results showed obvious differences between water supply and demand analysis among the eight scenarios simulations. As from the best strategies analysis, under the scenario of groundwater abstraction deduction, it was very near to a budget balance between water supply and demand in the year of 2015, while a similar trend was noted for the year of 2020, with adding the other implementation of water savings. In the planning year of 2030, along with the increase of water demand due to socio-economic development, water deficit(1.482×107 m3) was found although all the three supply methods were included in the scenario. Collectively, we can see that under a background of locally socio-economic development, structure of water utilization would change, ideas for water allocation should be adjusted along with it, especially in the water-scarce region. For a sustainable future in the loessial tableland area, water diversion might be the only way to maintain the local socio-economic development. |