| According to the temperature and precipitation data from 33 meteorological stations which lie in Shandong province during 1960—2013, using the trend line method, Mann-kendall mutation test, Z index method, and Markov model, etc, we analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of climate and the resulting responses from drought and flood disasters in Shandong province. It turned out that the overall temperatures in Shandong province presented a trend of increasing. Spring, summer, autumn and winter all showed a warming trend, and the most obvious season was winter. The temperature had been increased significantly since the 1990s, and the temperature mutation point was in 1991 when a cold period existed before 1991 and a warm period appeared after 1991. For the spatial variation characteristics, the mean annual temperature became increased gradually from east to west, while the temperature tendency rates showed opposite. The precipitation of Shandong province showed an overall trend of decreasing. The summer rainfall was mostly reduced, while spring and winter had a humid phenomenon. For the spatial variation characteristics, the annual precipitation was reduced gradually from southeast to northwest, and the precipitation tendency rates were opposite. After the temperature mutation point, the extreme drought and flood events became decreased, but the normal and slight drought events went increased. The situation in Shandong province was transformed from mainly flooding into mainly normal and dry conditions. For the spatial variation characteristics, the severity of drought varied gradually from southeast to northwest, and the flood did the opposite. Using Markov prediction model, in near period between 2014 and 2022, the probability of normal condition was the most. As for the distant future, the probability of normal condition was also greater than the probability of drought and flood conditions. |