| Research on time series prediction model of annual return water volume in Qingtongxia irrigation area |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2015.06.42 |
| Key Words: return water volume prediction time series Qingtongxia irrigation area |
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| Abstract: |
| In order to address the prediction problem of return water in Qingtongxia irrigation area, this paper analyzed the properties of annual return water volume and built a prediction model by time series method. The research results showed that the return water volume exhibited a correlation pattern between years. Its time series was a non-white noise and non-stationary series, and its first-order differential sequence was a non-white noise and stationary series. As a result, a time series prediction model of annual return water volume had been established with an average relative simulation error of 5.66% and a relative prediction error up to 5%, demonstrating the high simulation and prediction accuracy of this model. Thereby, it could be used for the prediction of annual return water in irrigation area. |