| Impact and simulation of climate change on water consumption and yield of winter-wheat in Guanzhong Region |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2016.01.34 |
| Key Words: climate change winter wheat water consumption yield DSSAT model |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | ZHANG Yan | College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China | | REN Xiao-chuan | Agricultural Economy Management Station of Qianxian County, Xianyang, Shaanxi 713300,China | | ZHAO Ying | College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China | | CAO Han | College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China | | FENG Hao | Institute of Water Saving Agriculture in Arid Regions of China, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
National Engineering Research Center for Water Saving Irrigation, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China |
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| Abstract: |
| Study the effects of climate change on water consumption and yield of winter wheat is significant for mitigating the negative impact of climate change, ensuring food security and the sustainable utilization of water resources. This paper applied the LARS-WG weather generator to simulate synthetic weather data under the SRA1B, SRA2, SRB1 emission scenarios from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) using the results of General Circulation Model HadCM3、IPCM4、MPEH5 and NCCCSM. Furthermore, DSSAT model was combined to simulate the change of winter wheat growth period、yield and water consumption under irrigation and non-irrigation conditions at the history(1961—2010) and future (2011—2030、2046—2065、2080—2090) climate change scenarios. Simulation results showed that, the average temperature will increase, the precipitation will decrease during the growth season under climate change scenarios in the future. Average temperature will increase by 0.93℃, 1.76℃ and 2.87℃, and rainfall will drop by 27.40 mm, 39.37 mm and 42.50 mm respectively in three periods(2011—2030, 2046—2065, 2080—2090). Water consumption and yield will decrease in both irrigation and non-irrigation conditions under different climate scenarios (irrigation condition will reduce by 5.16% and 8.63%, while non-irrigation condition will reduce by 9.58% and 13.76%). Regardless of climate change scenarios, winter wheat growth period will be shortened under both irrigation and non-irrigation conditions and it correlates negatively with average temperature, whereas positive correlation existed between precipitation and water consumption, rainfall and yield, and water consumption and yield. |
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