| Application of the coefficient of efficiency and index of agreement on accuracy assessment of drought forecasting models |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2016.01.35 |
| Key Words: coefficient of efficiency index of agreement accuracy assessment drought forecasting |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | WANG Lei | College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China | | WANG Peng-xin | College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China | | TIAN Miao | Institute of Agricultural Economy and Information, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210014, China | | LIU Jun-ming | College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China | | LI Li | College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China |
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| Abstract: |
| The coefficient of efficiency and index of agreement are usually used to evaluate the accuracy of hydrological models. Based on the drought monitoring results from the vegetation temperature index using Aqua-MODIS data from 2003 to 2014 in the Guanzhong Plain, China, the coefficient of efficiency and index of agreement were employed to assess the precision accuracy of two drought forecasting models, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models, and to analyze the performance of these models as well. The results showed that the coefficients of efficiency of the two models were -0.04 and -4.27, and the values of the index of agreement of the two models were 0.40 and 0.37, respectively, indicating that the performance of the ARIMA model was better than that of the SARIMA model. These results were in good agreement with the ones based on root mean square error, Pearson's correlation coefficient and Kappa coefficient. Particularly, the assessments of the coefficient of efficiency were reasonable and remarkable than those of the index of agreement. Therefore, the coefficient of efficiency was suitable for the accuracy assessment of the drought forecasting models. |
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