| Spatial and temporal analysis of soybean production and its risk assessment in Heilongjiang |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2016.02.32 |
| Key Words: soybean yield distribution model risk assessment |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | YANG Xiao-juan | Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science/National Engineering Laboratory of Efficient Water Use, Disaster Resistant and Mitigation of Crops/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China | | LIU Yuan | Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science/National Engineering Laboratory of Efficient Water Use, Disaster Resistant and Mitigation of Crops/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China | | BAI Wei | Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science/National Engineering Laboratory of Efficient Water Use, Disaster Resistant and Mitigation of Crops/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China | | LIU Bu-chun | Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science/National Engineering Laboratory of Efficient Water Use, Disaster Resistant and Mitigation of Crops/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: |
| In the context of sharp decrease in soybean yield and gradual increase of natural disasters in Heilongjiang, the information about the spatial and temporal distribution of soybean and the corresponding production risk were very useful for making planting and insurance policies, which would enhance food security. Based on the data of soybean yield in Heilongjiang from 1993 to 2012, the spatial and temporal variations of soybean yield were analyzed using the mathematical statistics method, and production risks of 14 areas in Heilongjiang were estimated using the yield distribution model. The results indicated that the soybean yield of Heilongjiang reached a maximum of 7 480 thousands tones in 2005, and became decreased sharply to 4 634 thousands tones in 2012. Qiqihaer, ARB and Heihe were the three main soybean production areas that accounted for 55.73% of soybean yield in Heilongjiang in 2012, and the corresponding production risks were 41.61%, 18.78% and 41.11%, respectively. In Heilongjiang province, the lowest soybean production risk area was ARB, and the highest was Daxinganling reaching 46.42% in 2012. Priority in disaster prevention and financial subsidization would need to be given to Qiqihaer and Heihe due to their large yield and high production risk. |
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