| Risk assessment of drought on upland rice in North China based on ORYZA2000 model |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2016.03.29 |
| Key Words: upland rice ORYZA2000 model drought intensity yield loss risk assessment North China region |
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| Abstract: |
| Pointed at the problem of yield instabiliy of aerobic rice, using the method combined crop growth similation technology with the mathematical statistics, carried out the quantity evaluation for the drought risk of the aerobic rice in growing season under the climate background of North China. Taking the deficit ratio related actual rainfed evaptranspiration to the potential evaptranspiratio, as crop water deficit index (CWDI) and the loss rate related the rainfed yield to the potential yield as the disaster loss index for the evaluation index of yield disaster loss, established the drought risk evaluation model from two angles as the extent of drought and yield loss, and carried out the drought risk evaluation. The results showed that: The CWDI for whole growing period of aerobic rice in North China Region was between 0.35 and 0.45. In different growth stages, it was highest at the emergence to ear differentiation stage. The drought disaster loss index was change between 0.24 to 0.50. it was higher in Northwest of Hebei, North of Shandong and South of Henan. For the drought intensity risk and disaster loss risk, the space distribution trend was basic identical. The low risk index areas were major distribued in North of Hebei and South of Shandong and other regions. But the risk index was rather high in Mid-south of Hebei, most of Henan and so on. For the comprehensive risk index, the high value areas major distributed in West and South of Henan, North of Shandong and part areas of the Mid of Hebei, and low value areas major distributed in Beijing, Tianjin, North of Hebei, most of Shandong and most areas of North Henan. From overall look, the comprehensive drought risk of aerobic rice was lower in most areas of North China. However, in the agricultural practice it could not be ignored for the response and defense to drought in high risk areas. |
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