| Prediction of late blight outbreak in arid regions of Gansu Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2016.05.18 |
| Key Words: potato late blight originating period prediction Gansu Province |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | LI Ya-jie | Gansu Provincial Key Lab of Aridland Crop Science-Gansu Key Lab of Crop Improvement & Germplasm Enhancement, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China
Dingxi Agricultural Science Research Institute, Dingxi, Gansu 743000, China | | SHI Qiang | Gansu Provincial Key Lab of Aridland Crop Science-Gansu Key Lab of Crop Improvement & Germplasm Enhancement, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | LI De-ming | Dingxi Agricultural Science Research Institute, Dingxi, Gansu 743000, China | | LV Tai | Tianshui Agricultural Science Research Institute, Tianshui, Gansu 741000, China | | HE Jiang-qiang | Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil & Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas of Ministry of Education, College of water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University，Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China | | WANG Peng | Tianshui Agricultural Science Research Institute, Tianshui, Gansu 741000, China | | ZHANG Jun-lian | Gansu Provincial Key Lab of Aridland Crop Science-Gansu Key Lab of Crop Improvement & Germplasm Enhancement, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | BAI Jiang-ping | Gansu Provincial Key Lab of Aridland Crop Science-Gansu Key Lab of Crop Improvement & Germplasm Enhancement, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | WANG Di | Gansu Provincial Key Lab of Aridland Crop Science-Gansu Key Lab of Crop Improvement & Germplasm Enhancement, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China |
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| Abstract: |
| To identify the meteorological factors that induce the outbreak of late blight, meteorological data of potato main planting area during 2012—2013 were analyzed, as well as the observed potato late blight outbreak data in Gansu Province. Furthermore, the late blight outbreak predictive equation was constructed for the arid mountainous area including high-humid mountain and plain areas, nevertheless the late blight forecast models for the plain regions remained to be further developed and optimized. The equation indicated that the temperature was the key factor for late blight outbreak in the high-humid mountain area. Rainfall influenced the incidence of late blight in arid mountainous area. In the same area, late blight originating period occurred earlier in plain regions and high-humid mountain area than that happened in the arid mountainous area, which might be due to the relatively strong mountain air flow in arid mountainous area. According to the validation data for the equation at different sites around arid mountainous, plain and high-humid mountain areas, forecast equation on late blight in arid mountainous area and high-humid mountain area showed higher forecast accuracy than plain area, and had a strong practical role in the prediction and prevention of late blight. |
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