| Research on seasonal drought characteristics and its dynamic drought risk assessment of five cities in northern Jiangsu Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2016.05.42 |
| Key Words: seasonal drought index system risk assessment five cities in northern Jiangsu Province |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | GONG Yan-bing | Institute of Hydraulic Information Statistic and Management, Hohai University, Changzhou, Jiangsu 213022, China
Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization, Nanjing, Jiangsu 211100, China | | HU Na | Institute of Hydraulic Information Statistic and Management, Hohai University, Changzhou, Jiangsu 213022, China | | LIU Gao-feng | Institute of Hydraulic Information Statistic and Management, Hohai University, Changzhou, Jiangsu 213022, China | | WU Min | Institute of Hydraulic Information Statistic and Management, Hohai University, Changzhou, Jiangsu 213022, China |
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| Abstract: |
| According to the meteorological data provided by Jiangsu statistical yearbook, through the standardized precipitation index (SPI), this paper calculated the seasonal drought indexes of five cities in northern Jiangsu Province in recent 25 years (1989—2013) in order to analyze the spatial-temporal characteristics and occurrence regularity of drought, and to assess dynamic drought risk. Based on four risk factors including dangerousness risk, exposure risk, vulnerability risk and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, the paper selected ten suitable indexes covering meteorological, hydrological, geographical, social and economic aspects to build a corresponding drought risk evaluation index system. After a combination use of entropy method and the CRITIC method to determine the weight of each index, weighted dynamic risk evaluation method was used to calculate the drought risk score of every city from 2008 to 2013. The results showed that drought in northern Jiangsu Province possessed obvious seasonal differences. Light drought and medium drought usually occurred in the spring, summer and autumn, while heavy drought and excessive drought occurred most often in autumn and winter in Yancheng city. The tendency of drought intensity was generally consistent with the tendency of drought frequency. Drought frequencies and intensities in the five cities were generally increased in spring, while the situation slightly turned better in autumn. In recent years, drought risks of the five cities had a certain kind of stability and their risks rankings from high to low were: Huaian＞Lianyungang＞Suqian＞Xuzhou＞Yancheng. In addition, there was a strong agreement between the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, and the dynamic changes of drought risk. |
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