| Time series analysis for river runoff of Hutubi River in Xinjiang |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2016.06.41 |
| Key Words: Hutubi River runoff period runoff characteristics Morlet wavelet analysis runoff prediction |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | FENG Ya-ping | School of Resources and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Ministry of Education, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China | | LIU Zhi-hui | School of Resources and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Ministry of Education, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Institute of Arid Ecology and Environment, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
International Research Center for Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-arid Areas, Urumqi 830046, China | | GUO Xiao-yun | School of Resources and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Ministry of Education, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China | | NIE Min | School of Resources and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Ministry of Education, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China | | SU Xiang-ming | School of Resources and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Ministry of Education, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the annual runoff data of Shimen Hydrological Station in Hutubi River during 1956 to 2011, using the methods of Morlet wavelet analysis and R/S analysis, the runoff period, variation characteristics and future trend of Hutubi River Basin in Xinjiang have been analyzed and forecasted. The research results showed that: (1) Through the analysis for the runoff in Hutubi River during 1956—2011, found the runoff time series to exist the oscillation period about 5 a, 10 a, 18 a and 28 a, among them the oscillation cycle of 18 a scale was the strongest, secondly was the 28 a scale. The oscillation on the time scale of 18 a in the 56 years research period was more stronger and existed 4 wet seasons and 5 dry seasons; the oscillation cycle of 28 a in 56 years period was relatively strong,and existed 3 wet seasons and 3 dry three seasons, at present was at the rather rich period. (2) Using the R/S to analyze the runoff sequence of Hutubi River, the Hurst index was 0.6442 and existed obvious Hearst phenomenon, which means that the runoff in future will be the increasing trend with the same as the past. |
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