| Land ecological security early-warning based on RBF neural network—— A case of Zhangye in Gansu province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2017.01.39 |
| Key Words: land ecological security warning RBF neural network PSR model Zhangye City |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | CHEN Ying | College of Resources and Environment Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | KONG Zhe | College of Resources and Environment Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | LU Zheng | College of Resources and Environment Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | WANG Dong | College of Resources and Environment Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | QIU Xiao-na | College of Resources and Environment Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | MIN Wen-jing | College of Resources and Environment Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | YANG Run-ci | College of Resources and Environment Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China |
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| Abstract: |
| For the target area of Zhangye area for research, the land ecological security early warning index system is established based on PSR model and the relevant data of land use from 2001 to 2012. Using the RBF neural network model to Zhangye from 2013 to 2017, we predicted the evolution trend of land ecological security in combination with the analysis of the early warning alert degree of the index and standard for 2001—2017 safety warning condition. The results showed thatthe land ecological security alert degree of the pressure system for Zhangye from 2001 to 2012 exhibited a tendency of fluctuations rise and alert degree of the state system and response system is on the decline, and the 2013—2017 pressure system shows the pattern of “moderate warning” to “severe warning”, the state system will be maintained in the “moderate warning” in the level, the response system will be in a state of “no warning”. In 2001—2017, Zhangye alert degree of the land ecological security will be slightly decreasing, with early warning index in 2013—2017 being about 0.46 and warning degrees in a state of “moderate warning”. |
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