| Simulation and prediction of the temporal-spatial distributions of grape growing areas based on the VAR model in Shanshan Oasis |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2017.05.08 |
| Key Words: grape growing area land use Shanshan Oasis VAR prediction |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | CHEN Meng-yu | College of Foreign Languages, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou, Jiangsu 215009, China | | JIA Xiang | College of Geography Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830054, China
Urumqi Institute of Spatial Remote Sensing Applications, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830054, China | | CHEN Shu-jiang | College of Geography Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830054, China
Urumqi Institute of Spatial Remote Sensing Applications, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830054, China | | YAN Zhi-ming | Management College, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830052, China | | ZHAO Cai-feng | College of Geography Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830054, China
Urumqi Institute of Spatial Remote Sensing Applications, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830054, China | | HUANG Tie-cheng | College of Geography Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830054, China
Urumqi Institute of Spatial Remote Sensing Applications, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830054, China |
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| Abstract: |
| Extracted and analysed long phase information from multitemporal remote sensing images based on RS, combined with field investigation and statistical data, the VAR model between the spatial and temporal field investigation, statistics analysis distribution pattern of the grape planting area and crop land in Shanshan were studied, then to simulate and forecast the development trend of the Shanshan oasis grape growing area. The results showed that: The growth speed of grape planting area was relatively quick from 1990 to 2000, the growth rate was as high as 121.18%, but it slowed down from 2000 to 2013, the growth rate was only 20.81%； the grape growing areas showed a trend of less distribution in south and more in north, the southern area in the county accounted for 31.34%； the proportion of grape growing area in the field of agricultural crops increased from 17.02% to 29.52% from 1990 to 2013, the growing structure of agriculture in Shanshan Oasis is becoming more and more balanced； the VAR model showed that the grape growing area and crop land keep in a relatively stable expansion proportion of area scale from 2014—2023. Shanshan Couty should increase the transformation and upgrading of grape industry in the future, and further improve the core compebitiveness and create a higher green GDP. |
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