| Simulation of the effects of precipitation and temperature change on spring wheat yield in dryland of Central Gansu |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2018.03.19 |
| Key Words: APSIM model climate change spring wheat yield simulation |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | REN Xin-zhuang | Gansu Provincial Key Laboratory of Arid Land Crop Science,Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou ,Gansu 730070, China
College of Agronomy, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | YAN Li-juan | College of Agronomy, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | LI Guang | Gansu Provincial Key Laboratory of Arid Land Crop Science,Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou ,Gansu 730070, China
College of Forest, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou ,Gansu 730070, China | | NIE Zhi-gang | College of Information Science and Technology, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou ,Gansu 730070, China | | WANG Jun | College of Information Science and Technology, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou ,Gansu 730070, China | | LUO Yong-zhong | College of Forest, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou ,Gansu 730070, China |
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| Abstract: |
| Climate change has a great impact on agricultural production, temperature and precipitation change are one of the most important factors. In the arid and semi arid areas, this effect is even greater. Spring wheat is one of the most important food crops in this area. In order to explore the effects of change of precipitation and temperature on spring wheat yield in drylands. In this paper, based on the daily meteorological data of a total of 42 years from 1971 to 2012 in Anding District of Dingxi city，the simulation of spring wheat yield in different precipitation (Daily precipitation ±20%, ±15%, ±10%, ±5%, ±0%) and temperature (Daily temperature ±2℃, ±1.5℃,±1℃, ±0.5℃, ±0℃) conditions using agricultural production system simulation model (APSIM), studied the influence of temperature and precipitation on spring wheat yield mechanism by adopting two polynomial regression, path analysis and marginal effect of single factor. The results showed that the yield of spring wheat (Y) and change encoding values of precipitation (X1) and temperature (X2) regression equation for Y=1452.24+2693.88X1-287.25X2-200.38X22-344.47X1X2(R2=0.999, P<0.01) within the scope of the design of the experiment. when the temperature is constant, precipitation and yield of spring wheat were positively linear relationship, the simulation results showed that the precipitation increased 5% each, yield of spring wheat biggest increase was 21.38%, the average growth of 14.31%; When precipitation unchanging, temperature and yield of spring wheat quadratic function decreasing relationship was open to the bottom, each elevated temperature of 0.5℃, the spring wheat yield biggest drop was 4.92%, the average decline of 3.24%. Path analysis showed that the existence of a negative interaction between temperature and precipitation effect, but the increased precipitation effect on the increase of spring wheat yield is greater than the temperature rise. |
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