| Cultivated area-food-population system in land fallow area and analysis of spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of cultivated land index——A Case Study of Hebei Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2018.03.40 |
| Key Words: area-food-population system pressure on cultivated land food security land follow spatio-temporal characteristics Hebei Province |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | YANG Ren-hao | School of Geographical Science, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China | | YANG Qing-yuan | School of Geographical Science, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China | | CHEN Yi-duo | School of Geographical Science, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China | | ZENG Li | School of Geographical Science, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China |
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| Abstract: |
| This study analyzed cultivated land, food and population systems with time-varying characteristics based on statistics like cultivated land area, grain yield and population of Hebei Province during the last 65 years as well as cultivated land pressure index using the for mula of the smallest cultivated land area. The paper calculated, analyzed and forecasted the spatial and temporal characteristics of the cultivated land pressure index in Hebei Province by GM(1,1) model. The results showed that: (1) There are some changes in Hebei Province from 1949 to 2014: The cultivated land decreased from 726.579×104 hm2 to 653.774×104 hm2, the cultivated land per capita decreased from 0.24 hm2 to 0.09 hm2, the grain yield increased from 469.51×104 t to 3 360.2×104 t, grain yield per capita increased from 152.14 kg to 455.07 kg, and the total population increased from 3 086.06×104 to 7 384×104; (2) All the cultivated land pressure indexes declined when the annual grain demand per capita was 380, 400, 420 kg, and continued below 1, respectively after 2005, 2008 and 2010. All the cultivated land pressure indexes of 11 cities in Hebei Province declined during the 65 years and only indexed 4 cities over 1 in 2010. The global Moran’s I of cultivated land pressure index was from weak negative correlation to weak positive correlation and the spatial agglomeration became stronger; (3) The cultivated land pressure index of Hebei Province continued to decline with the index below 1 over the next 11 year, and suggestions aiming at the less cultivated land pressure and food security issues in Hebei Province were put forward. |
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