| Study on the optimal allocation of oasis water resources based on the two-stages stochastic programming method |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2018.04.33 |
| Key Words: oasis water resources dynamic irrigation uncertainty analysis interval programming |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | SHEN Meng-yang | College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830046, China | | ZHAO Jian-ping | College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830046, China | | GUI Dong-wei | Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert-Grassland Ecosystem, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China | | FENG Xin-long | College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830046, China |
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| Abstract: |
| This research selected Cele Oasis in Hotan area located Southern margin of Tarim Basinas a typical study region, and the walnut,jujube and pomegranate as the main study objects, aimed at the uncertainty and complexity of the oasis water resources irrigation system, introduced the probability density function and the discrete interval method, structured the interval two-stages fuzzy stochastic programming model,carried out the optimization for the water allocation targets of diverse economic forest speciesin each irrigation season, simulated and analyzed the optimal water allocation for diverse forest species in different irrigation seasons. The research results showed that: The irrigation was mainly concentrated in summer and autumn.When the intake water volume in Cele River was uncertain, the jujube and pomegranate should be preferentially irrigated in spring;the jujube and walnut should be irrigated mainlyin summer and autumn,at the same time the irrigation area of pomegranate should be dynamically adjusted to obtain the maximal incomes by planting, the intervalwas \[0.67×108 to 1.32×108\] yuan. Through the typical case analysis, this model not only can befully taken into account the impact of uncertain factors to the system incomes, but also the economic benefits and punishment risk can be balanced, also the optimal results by the form of interval can be given out, thereby the most scientific decision making scheme can be obtained and that can be effectively applied into the optimal allocation and management of oasis water resources. |
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