| Risk assessment of drought on rice at different growth stages in Sichuan Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2018.06.28 |
| Key Words: rice growth stage drought disaster wetness index anomaly rate risk assessment distribution characteristics Sichuan Province |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | CHEN Chao | Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu, Sichuan 610072, China
Provincial Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture in Hill Areas of Southern China, Chengdu, Sichuan 610066, China | | PANG Yan-mei | Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu, Sichuan 610072, China | | XU Fu-xian | Institute of Rice and Sorghum, Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Science, Deyang, Sichuan 618000, China | | GUO Xiao-yi | Institute of Rice and Sorghum, Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Science, Deyang, Sichuan 618000, China |
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| Abstract: |
| Rice is the most important crop in Sichuan Province, however, drought is a major limiting factor for the rice production in the region. The frequent droughts in spring,summer,and late-summer have been significantly impacting rice yield in Sichuan. We collected daily meteorological data from 84 meteorological stations and corresponding historical disaster and phenology data of rice of 1961 to 2015 in Sichuan and used the wetness index anomaly rate as rice drought index, the spatial and temporary changes and risk of rice growth were evaluated at different development stages. The results showed that during the stage of transplanting to booting, the number of stations showing drought increased in a rate of 0.56 sites·(10a)-1in the studied period(55 years).Among them, the number of stations with mild and severe droughts showed an increased trend of 0.20 sites·(10a)-1and 0.41 sites·(10a)-1, respectively,but no significant changes for moderate drought situations. During the stage from booting to flowering, the number of stations with drought decreased in a rate of -0.49 sites·(10a)-1. The number of stations with moderate and severe droughts decreased in a rate of -0.22 sites·(10a)-1, but no significant change for mild drought. In the stage of flowering to maturity, the number of stations with drought increased at a rate of 0.54 sites·(10a)-1. Among them, the number of stations showing mild and severe droughts increased in a trend of 0.23 sites·(10a)-1and 0.55 sites·(10a)-1, respectively, but, no significant changes for moderate drought.From transplanting to booting, the highest values of rice drought frequency appeared in the central part of study area (36%~58.2%), but the lowest values appeared in the southwestern and northeastern parts of study area. From booting to flowering,spatial distribution of drought frequency showed a band shape, gradually increasing from the western to eastern parts of study area, and the highest frequency appeared in the northern basin and northeastern basin (36%~61.9%). From flowering to maturity,spatial distribution of drought frequency also showed a band shape, gradually increasing from the western to the eastern, and the highest frequency appeared in the southern basin and northeastern basin (30%~47.3%).During the stage of transplanting to booting, high-risk areas and sub-high risk areas of drought mainly concentrated in Deyang, Ziyang and Yibin. From booting to flowering, high-risk areas and sub-high risk areas distributed in central basin and northeastern basin. During the next stage,flowering to maturity, high-risk areas and sub-high risk areas appeared in the southern basin and northeastern basin. |
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