| Assessment of drought risk on spring wheat in Gansu using APSIM |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2018.06.29 |
| Key Words: spring wheat APSIM drought simulation hazard risk |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | NIE Zhi-gang | College of Information Science and Technology, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou， Gansu 730070, China
College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou， Gansu 730070, China | | REN Xin-zhuang | College of Agronomy, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou， Gansu 730070, China | | LI Guang | College of Forestry, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou， Gansu 730070, China | | LUO Cui-ping | College of Information Science and Technology, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou， Gansu 730070, China | | MA We-wei | College of Forestry, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou， Gansu 730070, China | | LIU Xiao-e | College of Forestry, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou， Gansu 730070, China |
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| Abstract: |
| In order to improve the ability of spring wheat production under drought in Gansu, the growth process of spring wheat was simulated for the major wheat production regions (spring wheat planting area in Hexi with irrigation, spring wheat planting area in the Loess Plateau of central Gansu, winter and spring wheat mixed planting area in high and cold region in Taomin, winter and spring wheat simultaneous planting area in the Loess Plateau of west-central Gansu) in Gansu from 1971 to 2012 using APSIM (agricultural production system simulator). Intensity index model of drought disaster of wheat was constructed based on water stress and temporal and spatial distribution of drought intensity and risk on spring wheat production in Gansu. The results showed that intensity index of drought disaster on spring wheat in Gansu showed a trend of high in northern and low in southern parts. The high intensity of drought disaster and the greatest impacted production region on spring wheat in Gansu was on the Loess Plateau of central Gansu and central western Gansu as the spring wheat production in Hexi area had irrigation system. The least affected areas by drought was alpine area of spring wheat in Taomin.The sensitivity of the major spring wheat producing areas to drought varied at different growth stages of wheat. When drought hazard index was greater than 0.40, the maximum of moderate drought disaster probability was 0.46 at the flowering stage in winter and spring wheat simultaneous planting area on the Loess Plateau of central western Gansu. During the flowering stage in arid planting area of spring wheat in central Gansu and in alpine planting area of spring wheat in Taomin, and during grain filling stage in facultative planting area of winter and spring wheat in Longxi and alpine planting area of spring wheat in Taomin, the drought disaster probability was greater than 0.6 in the drought hazard index ≥0.20 cases. |
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