| Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of winter wheat potential yields and its influencing factors in the Loess Plateau |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2019.03.35 |
| Key Words: winter wheat APSIM-Wheat model potential yield water-limited yield Loess Plateau |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | ZHANG Ling-ling | .Institute of Soil and Water Conservation， Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China | | FENG Hao | Institute of Soil and Water Conservation， Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
Institute of Water-saving Agriculture in Arid Areas of China, Northwest A&F University,Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China | | DONG Qin-ge | Institute of Soil and Water Conservation， Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
Institute of Water-saving Agriculture in Arid Areas of China, Northwest A&F University,Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China |
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| Abstract: |
| A study on the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of potential yield and its influencing factors could help to quantitatively estimate the potential of crop yield in the region, reveal the factors that limit crop yield, and then identify key areas and possible measures to increase crop yields in the future. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model was validated using the winter wheat data from Changwu Agro-ecological Experiment Station of the Chinese Academy of Sciences on Loess Plateau from 2004 to 2008, it performed well in simulating leaf area index, yield, and above-ground biomass of winter wheat. Hence, this model has good applicability in Loess Plateau. Combining meteorological data and agro-meteorological observations during 1974-2016 in winter wheat planting areas of Loess Plateau. The spatial-temporal distribution characteristics were analyzed in potential and water-limited yield of winter wheat, and then explored the impacts of climatic factors on potential and water-limited yield. The results showed that under the unchanged condition of variety and management measures from 1974 to 2016, the average potential yield and water-limited yield of winter wheat on the Loess Plateau were 6554.19 kg·hm-2 and 3584 kg·hm-2. In the past 42 years, the potential yield and water limited yield decreased by 146.59 kg·hm-2 and 65.11 kg·hm-2 ·（10a)-1, respectively. The increase in temperature caused the potential yield of winter wheat to decrease (P<0.05), and the increase in radiation increased the potential yield (P<0.05). The correlation coefficients were 0.36 and 0.35, respectively. Due to the absence of additional irrigation water supply during the winter wheat growing season, precipitation has the greatest impact on the water limited yield on the Loess Plateau, showing a significant positive effect (P<0.05) with a correlation coefficient of 0.47. Under the condition of sufficient irrigation, southeastern Gansu and central Shanxi were areas with low and unstable yields. Under the rain-feed condition, central and northeastern Shanxi were areas with low and unstable production. Therefore, we proposed to improve winter wheat yield in low and unstable yield areas through cultivation technology changes or selection of new varieties. |
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