| Impact of climate change on maize-planting zoning in rainfed agricultural area of Gansu Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2021.02.27 |
| Key Words: climate change maize eco-climate adaptability regionalization rainfed agricultural area Gansu Province |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | ZHUO Macao | College of Forest, Gansu Agriculture University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China
College of Information Science and Technology, Gansu Agriculture University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | YUAN Jianyu | College of Forest, Gansu Agriculture University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | HAN Bo | College of Forest, Gansu Agriculture University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | LI Guang | College of Forest, Gansu Agriculture University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | MA Weiwei | College of Forest, Gansu Agriculture University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | Wang Jun | College of Information Science and Technology, Gansu Agriculture University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China | | LIU Qiang | College of Information Science and Technology, Gansu Agriculture University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China |
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| Abstract: |
| This paper used the measured data of temperature and precipitation from 55 meteorological stations in rainfed agricultural areas in Gansu province from 1971 to 2015, according to the requirements of the growth and development of maize crops on meteorological conditions, the average temperature in July, accumulated temperature of ≥ 10℃, and annual precipitation were selected as indicators for the climatic zoning of maize planting suitability by using the comprehensive evaluation method. Linear tendency rate method, cumulative anomaly, Arc GIS spatial analysis technology, and Mann-Kendall method were used to analyze the temporal and spatial change characteristics and mutations of climate indicators in the study area, combined with the geographical distribution information of maize planting, we established a suitability evaluation model and analyzed the difference the spatial distribution of suitable areas for maize planting under the background of climate change. The results showed: (1) In recent 45 years, the average temperature in July and accumulated temperature ≥10℃ of the rainfed agricultural area in Gansu province had shown a significant upward trend, with the rate of 0.29℃·10 a-1 and 98.13℃·10 a-1, respectively, with abrupt changes in 1994 and 2000. The annual precipitation generally showed a decreasing trend, with strong fluctuations, and declined slowly at a rate of -2.57 mm·10 a-1 and changed abruptly in 1988. (2) From the perspective of spatial distribution, the average temperature in July and accumulated temperature of ≥10℃ generally showed a increasing pattern from the north to the south and the west to the east. The spatial trend of the precipitation varied irregularly and spatial pattern showed less precipitation in the central region of the study area and more precipitation in the surrounding areas. (3) Climate change had caused the maize plantable area in the study region to move to the high-altitude areas, the altitude had moved up by 500 m, the boundary of maize planting had shifted significantly in space, the northward and westward expansion were significant, from Longzhong, Longdong, and Longnan regions to Gannan region. The suitable total area of arable land for planting reached to 2.27×106 hm2, an increase of 58 500 hm2 over 2000, increased by 2.4% based on the total arable land area, the most suitable area increased significantly up to 15.9%. There were differences in the regional distribution of the suitable degree of maize planting. After 2000, the cultivated land area of the most suitable area for maize planting in the rainfed agricultural area of Gansu Province increased by 3.84×105 hm2, and the cultivated land area of the sub-suitable area, suitable area, and unsuitable area decreased by 2.54×105, 7.1×104, and 5.9×104 hm2, respectively. |
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