| Matching patterns of water and land resources in the rain\|fed agricultural region of Central Asia under future climate change scenarios |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2021.03.23 |
| Key Words: climate change Central Asia rain\|fed agricultural region water and land resources matching pattern spatio\|temporal variation food security |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | YAN Yingjie | State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China
Fukang Station of Desert Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Fukang, Xinjiang 831505, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China | | ZHOU Hongfei | State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China
Fukang Station of Desert Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Fukang, Xinjiang 831505, China | | ZHU Wei | State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China
Fukang Station of Desert Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Fukang, Xinjiang 831505, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China | | YAO Linlin | State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China
Fukang Station of Desert Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Fukang, Xinjiang 831505, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: |
| Central Asia is a key region for the implementation of the One Belt and One RoadInitiative. As the main grain product area in Central Asia. The rain\|fed agricultural region is of great significance to world and regional food security. Based on the five global climatemodels (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5),this paper analyzes the spatio\|temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation in the year and growth period during 2021-2050 under the RCPs scenarios. According to the filter conditions, which were suitable for crop cultivation, the spatial distribution of land suitable for farming was retrieved from four indexes including DEM, slope, land types, and land\|use types. The spatio\|temporal distribution characteristics of water\|land resources during 2021-2050 under the RCPs scenario were evaluated using the method of matching degree based on data sequence and water resource per unit area. The results showed that: (1)The annual mean precipita\|tion will decrease from the northeast to southwest. The eastern precipitation will increase, while it will decrease in the west and the trend will not be statistically significant. The increasing rate of annual precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario will be 1.61 mm·a-1, compared with 1.10 mm·a-1 under the RCP4.5 scenario. By the middle of this century, annual utilizable precipitation in RCP8.5 would be more than that in RCP4.5. (2) The land suitable for farming are abundant, but its spatial distribution difference will be relatively small,the northern region will be dominated by the existing cultivated land, while the southern and eastern regions will have sufficient reserve arable land resources. (3) The matching degree of water resource with land suitable for farming will be mostly above 0.6, generally at a good matching level, and RCP8.5>RCP4.5. Meanwhile, the matching in the growth period will be uneven, which in eastern and northern regions will be above 0.84, while in western and southern regions will be less than 0.70. As a whole, future climate change will have a double impact on grain production of Central Asia’s rain\|fed agricultural areas. This paper also puts forward some relevant measures to improve the ability to cope with climate change. |
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