| Distribution and development trends of farmland malignant weed Bromus tectorum L. in China under climate change |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2021.06.24 |
| Key Words: Bromus tectorum L. suitable area distribution MaxEnt model GIS climate change |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | DENG Haiyan | Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China
Qinghai Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China
Xining Crop Pest Scientific Observation and Experimental Station, Ministry of Agriculture, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China
Qinghai Key Laboratory of Agricultural Pest Comprehensive Management, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China | | CHENG Liang | Qinghai Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China
Xining Crop Pest Scientific Observation and Experimental Station, Ministry of Agriculture, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China
Qinghai Key Laboratory of Agricultural Pest Comprehensive Management, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China | | GUO Liangzhi | Qinghai Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China
Xining Crop Pest Scientific Observation and Experimental Station, Ministry of Agriculture, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China
Qinghai Key Laboratory of Agricultural Pest Comprehensive Management, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China | | GUO Qingyun | Qinghai Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China
Xining Crop Pest Scientific Observation and Experimental Station, Ministry of Agriculture, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China
Qinghai Key Laboratory of Agricultural Pest Comprehensive Management, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China | | WEI Youhai | Qinghai Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China
Xining Crop Pest Scientific Observation and Experimental Station, Ministry of Agriculture, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China
Qinghai Key Laboratory of Agricultural Pest Comprehensive Management, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China |
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| Abstract: |
| The purpose of this study was to determine the spatial distribution of Bromus tectorum L. in China and its response to climate change so as to develop ecological prevention and control measures. The study used the geographical distribution datas of Bromus tectorum L. in China with current climate datas and future climate change scenarios (2050s and 2070s under RCP8.5 scenarios) to establish a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt model) and decide the dominant influence on the distribution of Bromus tectorum L. environmental factors. The geographic information system (GIS) was used to divide the suitable areas of Bromus tectorum L. in China, and the ROC curve was used as the accuracy evaluation index of the simulation. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had an excellent simulation effect (AUC=0.965). Under current climatic conditions, the suitable area for Bromus tectorum L. was 2.5534×106 km2, which was mainly distributed in the northeastern part of Qinghai Province and the area bordering Qinghai Province and Gansu Province, the northwest of Sichuan Province and the northwest of Xinjiang. Among them, the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Bromus tectorum L. were altitude, bio12 (annual precipitation), bio9 (average temperature of the driest quarter) and bio15 (coefficient of seasonal variation of precipitation). Their contribution rates were 45.0%, 17.5%, 9.7% and 9.7% respectively, and the cumulative contribution rate was 81.9%; Under the RCP8.5 scenario, during the next two periods (2050s and 2070s), the distribution area of the potential high\|fitness area of Bromus tectorum L. would be increased by 12.2%~23.3% compared with the current situation. The distribution area of potential highly suitable areas would be reduced by 8.9% in the 2070s, compared with that of the 2050s. In summary, the potential distribution area of Bromus tectorum L. under the climate change scenario showed a trend of future expansion compared with current times, and the distribution area of suitable area in the 2070s under RCP8.5 scenario showed a decreasing trend compared with that of the 2050s under RCP8.5 scenario. |
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