| The optimal allocation of oasis agricultural water based on the interval two\|stage stochastic programming with CVaR |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2021.06.26 |
| Key Words: Cele Oasis water resource allocation CVaR stochastic programming |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | XI Kaiyan | State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China | | YU Jialu | State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China | | ZHANG Min | State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China | | YU Ruide | State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
School of Environmental and Material Engineering, Yantai University, Yantai, Shandong 264005, China |
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| Abstract: |
| Rational allocation of water resources for irrigation is a main approach to alleviate pressures of water shortage in the oasis. We selected Cele Oasis in Hotan area located in Southern margin of Tarim Basin as the study area, and utilized discrete probability functions to process the annual runoff data of Cele River during the recent 60 years. Based on planting structure of the economic fruit forests in the Cele Oasis, we modeled the irrigation management problem as an interval two\|stage stochastic programming with CVaR (ITSP-CVaR) to handle risks caused by randomness and uncertainty. In addition, an innovated method based on the grey linear programming was proposed to solve the ITSP-CVaR model. The research results showed that when the intake water volume in Cele River was uncertain, the jujube should be preferentially irrigated. Moreover, although the ITSP-CVaR model served as a little more conservative water allocation strategy compared to the original ITSP, it remained the upper bounds of total revenue in low\|flow and medium\|flow years, and at the same time increased the lower bounds from 5.1×107 Yuan (RMB) and 2.12×108 Yuan to 5.6×107 Yuan and 2.17×108 Yuan, respectively. The typical case analysis showed that the application of ITSP-CVaR model not only ensured the maximization of income while meeting the water requirements of each fruit forest, but also resisted risks in the case of water shortage. Thus, the model can have a great significance for improving the water efficiency of oasis agriculture and maintaining the agricultural ecological stability. |
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