| Response simulation of CO2 concentration and temperature on spring wheat yield in dryland under different precipitation types |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2023.02.25 |
| Key Words: spring wheat yield precipitation type CO2 temperature response simulation |
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| Abstract: |
| The purpose of this study was to quantify the effects of elevated CO2 concentration and temperature increment on dryland spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields in different precipitation year patterns. Based on the APSIM model driven by meteorological data, soil data and management data in Longzhong, Gansu Province, different CO2concentration and temperature increment changes were set to simulate future climate scenarios in Longzhong, Gansu Province, analyze the impact of climate change scenarios on yield stability and sustainability of spring wheat, and assess the yield risk corresponding to different climate treatments. The results showed that the normalized root mean square error NRMSE of wheat yield in drought and wet years simulated by the APSIM model was less than 13% and the consistency index D was greater than 0.85, while the normalized root mean square error NRMSE of yield in flat water years was greater than 20% and the consistency index D was less than 0.8, indicating that the accuracy of the APSIM model for spring wheat yield simulations in drought and wet years was higher than that in normal water years. Both CO2concentration and temperature had significant effects on spring wheat yield, and temperature had a dominant effect on the variation of wheat yield. The effect of precipitation was wet year > normal year > drought year, and the effect of yield reduction due to the synergy of the two was normal year > drought year > wet year. Comparing the values of coefficient of variation and sustainability index under different precipitation year types found that the wheat yield risk was greatest under the treatment of 2.5~3℃ warming in drought year; the wheat yield risk was greatest under the treatment of 2~2.5℃ warming in wet year; and the wheat yield risk was greatest under the treatment of 1℃ warming in flat water year. |
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