| Study on drought risk characteristics of summer soybean in Hebei Province based on Copula function |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2023.06.28 |
| Key Words: drought recurrence period drought duration drought intensity summer soybean Copula function |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | GAO Jianhua | Hebei Provincial Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050021, China；Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050021, China | | KANG Xiyan | Hebei Provincial Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050021, China；Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050021, China | | CHANG Yufei | Hebei Provincial Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050021, China；Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050021, China | | WANG Yunxiu | Hebei Provincial Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050021, China；Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050021, China | | DAI Liqin | Hebei Provincial Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050021, China；Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050021, China | | LI Chunqiang | Hebei Provincial Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050021, China；Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050021, China |
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| Abstract: |
| Drought is one of the main agro\|meteorological hazards in the growth period of summer soybean in Hebei Province. Based on the observed meteorological data of 97 weather stations in the summer soybean planting area of Hebei Province from 1991 to 2020 and the crop water deficit index, the duration and intensity of drought events were analyzed by the runs theory, and the recurrence period of drought as well as its relationship with soybean yield were studied by the Copula function. The results showed that:(1)The high value area of drought duration and drought intensity in this area was in Xingtai and Handan, and the high value area of drought frequency was in the west of Shijiazhuang, west of Baoding and north of Langfang, indicating that the area of high frequency was not necessarily the distribution area of long duration and intense drought process.(2) The marginal distribution function with the largest number of sites for drought duration was Weibull and lognormal, and for drought intensity was generalized extreme value and lognormal.(3) According to the goodness\|of\|fit test of the root mean square error, the optimal joint distribution function of drought duration and intensity was the Frank\|Copula function.(4)The recurrence period of drought events in 3 ten\|days was the smallest, and the high\|risk areas of severe drought were mainly distributed in Langfang, Baoding, the middle west of Shijiazhuang, and the central and eastern of Cangzhou, Hengshui, Xingtai, and Handan.All levels of drought in 11 ten\|days were relatively high\|risk areas, while most other areas were low risk areas, and the possibility of drought events in 11 ten\|days was less.(5) The correlation coefficient of soybean yield and drought duration and drought intensity of 75% passed the significance test of 0.05, and the correlation coefficient of the recurrence period of 0.05. Even one site passed the significance test of 0.001, indicating that the recurrence period better reflected the influence of drought events on yield, and the recurrence period of low value of long duration and high intensity drought events was the high\|risk area of drought. |
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