| Drought multivariable probability characteristics in the Yili River Basin based on comprehensive drought index |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2024.04.26 |
| Key Words: comprehensive drought index D\|Vine\|Copula joint probability spatial distribution Yili River Basin |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | LI Zilong | College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering， Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830052, China
Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Security and Water Disasters Prevention, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830052, China | | MU Zhenxia | College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering， Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830052, China
Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Security and Water Disasters Prevention, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830052, China |
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| Abstract: |
| sed on the D-Vine-Copula function, a new comprehensive drought index SWCI which can illustrate the characteristics of meteorological\|hydrological\|agricultural drought was constructed by combining precipitation and evapotranspiration, runoff and soil water simulated by VIC model. The multi\|attribute probability characteristics and spatial distribution of drought in Yili River Basin were analyzed in order to provide a scientific basis for drought zoning and drought risk assessment. The results showed that: (1) The constructed SWCI index captured different types of drought characteristics well and has good applicability. (2) From 1960 to 2010, there were 43 drought events in the eastern valley, with a high frequency but a light degree of drought. There were 38 and 39 drought events in the western valley and southern mountains, respectively. The frequency of drought was lower than that of the eastern valley, but the drought was severe. (3) The joint probability of multi\|dimensional drought in each region was negatively correlated with drought duration, intensity and peak value, indicating that the greater the duration, intensity and peak value of drought, the smaller the probability of comprehensive drought. (4) From the binary conditional probability, the conditional probability of drought duration (drought intensity) increased with the increase of drought intensity (drought duration), but the probability of drought intensity (drought duration) decreased with the increase of drought duration (drought duration) when drought intensity (drougth duration) was a fixed value. (5) The high drought risk areas were mainly concentrated in the western valley and southern mountains while the other areas were low risk. |
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