| Predicting suitable habitats for Elsholtzia densa on the Qinghai\|Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau under climate change using the Biomod2 model |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2025.03.28 |
| Key Words: Elsholtzia densa suitable area climate change biomod2 combinatorial modeling Qinghai\|Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | LIU Zeyuan | College of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China | | WEI Youhai | College of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China
Qinghai Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China | | HOU Lu | College of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China
Qinghai Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China | | GUO Liangzhi | College of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China
Qinghai Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China | | CHENG Liang | College of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China
Qinghai Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China | | LI Yue | College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China | | YANG Zhenyang | College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China | | FU Zhenzhen | College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China |
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| Abstract: |
| Elsholtzia densa is one of the major malignant weeds in agricultural fields on the Qinghai\|Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau, and in order to explore its potential threat to crops and potential distribution areas under future climate change scenarios, this study used 10 algorithms provided by the Biomod2 platform combined into a single model to evaluate and analyze environmental variables affecting Elsholtzia densa’s fitness for distribution, and to predict the changes in suitable areas and center\|of\|mass transfer in the context of current and future climate change. The results showed that the main environmental factor affecting the distribution of Elsholtzia densa was the maximum temperature of the warmest month, and that it was distributed in Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Qinghai\|Xizang (Tibetan) under the current climatic conditions, with a total area of 1.044×106 km2, which accounted for 40.94% of the total area of the Qinghai\|Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau. Predictions based on the context of climate change indicate that Elsholtzia densa has significantly expanded its habitat on the Qinghai\|Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau, demonstrating a greater ability to survive and reproduce at higher altitudes. Its center of mass is expected to shift northwestward. The invasion of Elsholtzia densa poses a serious threat to crop yield and quality, necessitating effective control measures. Strengthened monitoring of its occurrence and spread, along with the development of efficient prevention and management strategies, is essential for mitigating its impact. |
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