| Analysis of the spatial distribution and influencing factors of stable winter wheat planting in northern China |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2025.05.26 |
| Key Words: winter wheat stable planting area topographic gradient agricultural climate factor soil quality northern China |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | HUANG Yinlan | School of Geography and Planning, Chizhou University, Chizhou, Anhui 247000, China
Research Center for Agricultural Ecological Resources and Environment, Chizhou University, Chizhou, Anhui 247000, China | | LIU Dan | School of Geography and Planning, Chizhou University, Chizhou, Anhui 247000, China | | CHEN Shi | School of Geography and Planning, Chizhou University, Chizhou, Anhui 247000, China
Research Center for Agricultural Ecological Resources and Environment, Chizhou University, Chizhou, Anhui 247000, China |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on winter wheat data from northern China spanning 2018 to 2024, this study employed methods such as hotspot analysis and the Geodetector to analyze the spatial distribution patterns of stable winter wheat planting. Additionally, the study explored the influence of topographic gradient factors, agro\|climatic conditions, and soil quality indicators on stable winter wheat planting and examined the constraints of land\|use changes on its spatial distribution. The results showed that: (1) Approximately 40% of winter wheat planting in northern China exhibited over 71% of occurrence probability. The hotspots for stable winter wheat planting were primarily located at the junction of Baoding, Cangzhou, Shijiazhuang, and Langfang in Hebei Province, while coldspots were concentrated in Taiyuan, Lüliang, Jinzhong, and Changzhi in Shanxi Province. (2) Topographic gradient factors had the most significant impact on stable winter wheat planting (average q value was 0.19), followed by agro\|climatic conditions (average q value was 0.17), with soil quality exerting the least influence. Notably, the interaction between pairs of factors significantly influenced winter wheat stability. The areas with an elevation of less than 589 meters and growing degree days exceeding 2020℃·d favored stable planting. (3) Among the types of land\|use changes, the conversion of cropland to impervious surfaces, driven by urban expansion, had a notable impact on stable winter wheat planting. The cropland area suitable for stable winter wheat planting declined from 64 344 km2 in 1999 to 56 777 km2 in 2023, representing a reduction of 11.76% (7 567 km2). |
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