| Response of winter wheat net primary productivity to drought under asymmetric changes in climate and phenology |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2026.04.24 |
| Key Words: North China Plain winter wheat climate\|phenology asymmetry change meteorological drought net primary productivity driving mechanisms |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | WU Jiujiang | Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Chengdu, Sichuan 610213, China
Key Laboratory of Cultivated Land Resources Survey, Monitoring, Protection and Utilization for Cultivated Land Resources, Ministry of Natural Resources, Chengdu, Sichuan 610045, China | | YANG Yanqing | Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Chengdu, Sichuan 610213, China | | LIU Yanjie | Key Laboratory of Cultivated Land Resources Survey, Monitoring, Protection and Utilization for Cultivated Land Resources, Ministry of Natural Resources, Chengdu, Sichuan 610045, China
Surveying and Mapping Geographic Information Center, Sichuan Geological Survey Research Institute, Chengdu, Sichuan 610072, China | | SHEN Liang | Key Laboratory of Cultivated Land Resources Survey, Monitoring, Protection and Utilization for Cultivated Land Resources, Ministry of Natural Resources, Chengdu, Sichuan 610045, China
Surveying and Mapping Geographic Information Center, Sichuan Geological Survey Research Institute, Chengdu, Sichuan 610072, China | | ZHAO Wei | Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Chengdu, Sichuan 610213, China |
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| Abstract: |
| To explore the asymmetric synergistic mechanism between frequent drought and crop phenology under the background of climate change, the North China Plain was chosen as the research area. Based on long\|term remote sensing and meteorological observation data, a drought response analysis framework integrating climate asymmetry characteristics and phenological dynamics was constructed to reveal the spatial and temporal response characteristics and key regulatory paths of winter wheat net primary productivity (NPP) to drought. The results showed that climatic suitability across growth stages generally decreased from south to north. Among these stages, the green\|up to heading period exhibited the most pronounced asymmetric fluctuations, with a mean climatic suitability of 0.59 and a coefficient of variation of 13.6%, and showed an overall declining trend at an average rate of -0.22×10-2 per year. Moreover, in more than 50% of the study area, the asymmetry between climate and phenologicaldynamics simultaneously increased both the probability and intensity of drought\|induced NPP losses. Structural equation modeling further revealed a stage\|dependent transition in the dominant climatic controls, shifting from temperature and precipitation to sunshine hours as crop development progressed. Climatic asymmetry changes indirectly amplified drought risk by altering climatic suitability. The green\|up to heading stage, which marks the transition from vegetative to reproductive growth, was particularly sensitive to imbalances in hydrothermal conditions and therefore represented a critical window of increasing drought vulnerability. This study reveals the compound driving effects of the asymmetric linear synergy between climate change and crop phenology on drought risk, and provides atheoretical foundationfor improving the response of agricultural systems to future climate adaptation. |
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