| Study on the influence mechanism of meteorological factors on the yearly harvest of jujubes in Western Liaoning and the forecasting model |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2026.04.26 |
| Key Words: climate stress economic fruit trees Chinese jujube yield fluctuation Western Liaoning production zone |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | MA Yongzhong | Jianchang Meteorological Bureau of Liaoning Province, Jianchang, Liaoning 125300, China
| | HUANG Yinghua | Jianchang Meteorological Bureau of Liaoning Province, Jianchang, Liaoning 125300, China
| | HUA Chengxun | Jianchang Emergency Management Service Center, Jianchang, Liaoning 125300, China | | YANG Xueqiang | Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Bureau of Liaoning Province, Chaoyang, Liaoning 122000, China |
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| Abstract: |
| The western region of Liaoning Province, a major jujube production base in China, has experienced an average annual yield reduction of 12.7% due to climate anomalies over the past 15 years, which threatens the sustainable development of the regional specialty fruit forest industry. Based on meteorological data from four national reference stations from 1973 to 2024, along with standardized Chinese jujube yield data, this study systematically quantified the critical climatic stress thresholds from the dormancy to maturity stages of Chinese jujube trees using phenological decomposition and statistical modeling methods, and constructed a jujube annual yield prediction model. The results showed that: (1) Specific meteorological disaster thresholds exist for key growth stages of jujube trees, during the dormancy period, a daily minimum temperature ≤-20℃ (DTD) lasting ≥8 days caused xylem frost cracking, with a highly significant correlation with jujube yield (r=-0.757, P<0.01); during the flowering stage, consecutive cloudy days (JCCD) ≥4 days reduced fruit set rate by 37%; during the fruit expansion stage, consecutive days without effective precipitation (JACWP) ≥35 days induced massive fruit drop; during the fruit\|ripening stage, cumulative precipitation (SDP) >30 mm increased fruit cracking rate by 20%. (2) The Chinese jujube annual yield prediction model constructed based on multiple linear regression was ysad=1.989-0.155x1-0.060x2-0.040x3-0.006x4 (where x1 to x4 represent DTD, JCCD, JACWP, and SDP, respectively), which explains 86.6% of the yield variation (R2=0.866) and achieves a historical fitting accuracy of 91.8%, the model’s independent validation errors for 2023 and 2024 were both less than 0.02σ. |
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