| Combining the domestic and international indices of grain security and the grain production characteristics in Northeast China, tow factors output of grain crops per capita and grain yield fluctuation coefficient are chosen as early warning indices, and their warning limitations of grain production security are developed considering the national food security level.Then, production safety index synthesizing every early warning index is constructed to reflect the grain production state of three provinces in Northeast China by GIS model.The results show that: the grain production safety degree of the two provinces of Jilin and Liaoning in 2000 was lower than that in 2003, but the result is opposite in Heilongjiang Province where grain production safety degree of 2000 is higher than that in 2003.The result can be validated by the grain trade in different provinces. |